More before Sunday Open

I suspect that price will gap downward 20 or so pips to a Fib level of 50%. But I think most institutional investors will take long positions through out each market open (Sydney, Tokyo, London, New York). I would look to see price hit the Fib 138.2 Extension level of 97.96 by Monday or Tuesday at the latest. (That Fib level is based upon the Friday low to high.) My counter thought is that there will be tight ranging around the current price of 30-40 pips. I am going to be prepared for both scenarios though. So I may wait to open a trade until dropping from Friday Close 96.55 to around 96.30/35 which I believe to be close to range bottom if the ranging scenario prevails. But it would also be a great entry for a long move up under the first scenario. We'll see in the next couple of hours! Plus one more chart in the 15 min time frame which goes nicely with the previous 4 hour chart. Notice closing price is right on the 62 EMA.

Trade Analysis on EUR/JPY to Open Week

Last week closed with a strong upward movement of 174 pips beginning Wednesday at 11:00 PM PDT until 6:00AM Thursday. Price then fell back to the 38.2 Fibonacci level and then shot up 168 pips hitting the Fibonacci extension level of 138.2 during the Friday Euro Market. A total of 340 pips was strong enough to cause a change in direction of the hourly 62 EMA (though the 15 min 62 EMA had previously trended up). Heres a chart.

I am looking to see price moving up to test the Friday high of 97.32. I will take a long position. If price gaps down on Sunday open then I will take a position at 96.40 (Fibo level 50% on 15min chart) If price gaps up I will wait for a small downward reaction first. I expect that most traders will go short first in such a scenario, but price will test the Friday high before the close of the Euro market Monday.