Trade Analysis on EUR/JPY to Open Week

Last week closed with a strong upward movement of 174 pips beginning Wednesday at 11:00 PM PDT until 6:00AM Thursday. Price then fell back to the 38.2 Fibonacci level and then shot up 168 pips hitting the Fibonacci extension level of 138.2 during the Friday Euro Market. A total of 340 pips was strong enough to cause a change in direction of the hourly 62 EMA (though the 15 min 62 EMA had previously trended up). Heres a chart.

I am looking to see price moving up to test the Friday high of 97.32. I will take a long position. If price gaps down on Sunday open then I will take a position at 96.40 (Fibo level 50% on 15min chart) If price gaps up I will wait for a small downward reaction first. I expect that most traders will go short first in such a scenario, but price will test the Friday high before the close of the Euro market Monday.